tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: American via Charlotte, leaving 06:12, is the safest bet: 76% chance of reaching Austin on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 68% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 2242 Southwest DCA 16:44 AUS 19:19 20% 5% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Austin on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Austin is 1 h behind Washington). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → DCA 07:45 → MSP 09:25DL 1493 2h 25m Minneapolis MSP 11:50 → AUS 14:40DL 2062 7h 55m 99% 86%
DeltaDetails → DCA 05:54 → DTW 07:26DL 2869 1h 38m Detroit DTW 09:04 → AUS 10:59DL 1218 6h 05m 98% 86%
SouthwestDetails → DCA 08:17 → STL 09:50WN 1519 3h 52m St Louis STL 13:42 → AUS 15:59WN 1642 8h 42m 99% 86%
DeltaDetails → DCA 06:00 → ATL 07:43DL 410 3h 22m Atlanta ATL 11:05 → AUS 12:25DL 2011 7h 25m 99% 84%
UnitedDetails → DCA 06:30 → ORD 07:46UA 1793 1h 15m Chicago ORD 09:01 → AUS 11:59UA 1688 6h 29m 97% 84%
DeltaDetails → DCA 08:59 → ATL 10:57DL 455 3h 18m Atlanta ATL 14:15 → AUS 15:50DL 1397 7h 51m 98% 82%
DeltaDetails → DCA 08:00 → ATL 09:51DL 343 2h 39m Atlanta ATL 12:30 → AUS 13:51DL 2104 6h 51m 96% 81%
UnitedDetails → DCA 06:00 → IAH 08:13UA 1450 2h 02m Houston IAH 10:15 → AUS 11:19UA 1823 6h 19m 99% 80%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → DCA 17:59 → ORD 19:08UA 2148 50m Chicago ORD 19:58 → AUS 22:54UA 312 5h 55m 71% 52%
UnitedDetails → DCA 15:10 → EWR 16:32UA 4560 · flown by GoJet 1h 05m Newark EWR 17:37 → AUS 20:29UA 2213 6h 19m 68% 42%
UnitedDetails → DCA 17:55 → EWR 19:28UA 4180 · flown by GoJet 1h 21m Newark EWR 20:49 → AUS 23:49UA 1409 6h 54m 69% 40%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON