Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 13–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AA 5213 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 08:35	AVL 10:25	13%	4%	1.2%	79%
YX 4675 Republic	DCA 15:59	AVL 17:42	16%	4%	1.4%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Asheville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DCA 06:00 → MSP 07:35DL 1193	1h 29m Minneapolis	MSP 09:04 → AVL 12:24DL 2181	6h 24m	97%	90%
Delta Details →	DCA 07:00 → BOS 08:39DL 5698 · flown by Republic	57m Boston	BOS 09:36 → AVL 12:03DL 5778 · flown by Republic	5h 03m	95%	84%
Delta Details →	DCA 06:00 → ATL 07:43DL 410	2h 21m Atlanta	ATL 10:04 → AVL 11:09DL 3059	5h 09m	99%	83%
Delta Details →	DCA 08:00 → ATL 09:51DL 343	2h 34m Atlanta	ATL 12:25 → AVL 13:21DL 1182	5h 21m	96%	82%
American Details →	DCA 08:30 → CLT 10:13AA 1518	3h 49m Charlotte	CLT 14:02 → AVL 15:08AA 5588 · flown by PSA	6h 38m	97%	76%
Delta Details →	DCA 16:00 → ATL 18:06DL 360	3h 24m Atlanta	ATL 21:30 → AVL 22:32DL 3116	6h 32m	97%	75%
American Details →	DCA 15:15 → CLT 16:48AA 2040	2h 55m Charlotte	CLT 19:43 → AVL 20:43AA 6112 · flown by Piedmont	5h 28m	96%	71%
Delta Details →	DCA 09:45 → LGA 10:55DL 5772 · flown by Republic	1h 01m New York	LGA 11:56 → AVL 14:06DL 1812	4h 21m	83%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON