Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 13–17% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AA 5332 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 08:45	BHM 10:08	13%	7%	1.9%	92%
OH 5226 PSA	DCA 14:51	BHM 16:11	17%	9%	1.8%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Birmingham on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Birmingham is 1 h behind Washington). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DCA 06:00 → ATL 07:43DL 410	3h 32m Atlanta	ATL 11:15 → BHM 11:10DL 1017	6h 10m	99%	86%
Delta Details →	DCA 08:00 → ATL 09:51DL 343	3h 41m Atlanta	ATL 13:32 → BHM 13:25DL 3012	6h 25m	98%	83%
United Details →	DCA 10:58 → IAH 13:19UA 2190	1h 06m Houston	IAH 14:25 → BHM 16:20UA 6120 · flown by Mesa	6h 22m	92%	83%
American Details →	DCA 06:12 → CLT 07:48AA 1521	1h 19m Charlotte	CLT 09:07 → BHM 09:47AA 5043 · flown by PSA	4h 35m	97%	82%
Delta Details →	DCA 10:16 → ATL 12:05DL 926	2h 59m Atlanta	ATL 15:04 → BHM 15:05DL 3163	5h 49m	99%	81%
Delta Details →	DCA 12:23 → DTW 14:00DL 2476	2h 39m Detroit	DTW 16:39 → BHM 17:43DL 3062	6h 20m	97%	80%
Delta Details →	DCA 05:54 → DTW 07:26DL 2869	1h 04m Detroit	DTW 08:30 → BHM 09:33DL 3685 · flown by SkyWest	4h 39m	97%	78%
American Details →	DCA 15:15 → CLT 16:48AA 2040	3h 09m Charlotte	CLT 19:57 → BHM 20:37AA 5205 · flown by PSA	6h 22m	96%	76%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	DCA 10:02 → MIA 12:58AA 401	54m Miami	MIA 13:52 → BHM 14:59AA 3422 · flown by Envoy	5h 57m	73%	53%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON