Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 9 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 1485 at 06:13 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 7–17%.

Safest bet that day WN 1485 DCA 06:13 → BNA 07:05 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 546 DCA 17:57 → BNA 18:58 · 17% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1485 Southwest	DCA 06:13	BNA 07:05	3%	1%	0.6%	no record
YX 4367 Republic	DCA 00:54	BNA 01:50	7%	2%	0.7%	no record
DL 5708 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 10:10	BNA 11:20	8%	2%	0.7%	89%
WN 580 Southwest	DCA 10:17	BNA 11:18	8%	1%	0.6%	no record
DL 5777 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 15:10	BNA 16:15	10%	3%	0.7%	76%
AA 5085 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 08:04	BNA 09:17	12%	4%	1.0%	64%
MQ 4276 Envoy	DCA 13:42	BNA 14:41	14%	3%	0.9%	no record
WN 1869 Southwest	DCA 14:42	BNA 15:43	15%	4%	0.7%	no record
WN 546 Southwest	DCA 17:57	BNA 18:58	17%	5%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON