Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 16 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: DL 5698 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 10–26%.

Safest bet that day DL 5698 DCA 07:00 → BOS 08:39 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest B6 1254 DCA 14:16 → BOS 15:51 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 68% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 5698 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 07:00	BOS 08:39	4%	2%	0.7%	92%
DL 5687 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 09:27	BOS 11:24	7%	2%	0.7%	88%
AA 3240 American Flight history →	DCA 07:25	BOS 08:50	8%	3%	0.8%	82%
DL 5693 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 12:00	BOS 13:47	9%	3%	0.7%	84%
AA 4337 American flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 09:46	BOS 11:39	9%	3%	0.8%	50%
AA 4668 American flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 20:49	BOS 22:39	10%	4%	1.1%	73%
AA 1015 American Flight history →	DCA 10:54	BOS 12:29	13%	4%	0.8%	75%
MQ 9873 Envoy	DCA 21:33	BOS 23:09	13%	5%	1.6%	no record
DL 5600 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 14:40	BOS 16:25	14%	6%	0.7%	61%
B6 754 JetBlue	DCA 11:26	BOS 13:06	15%	6%	0.8%	no record
DL 5682 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 16:55	BOS 18:50	17%	7%	1.0%	59%
AA 955 American	DCA 14:53	BOS 16:46	19%	8%	0.8%	no record
B6 1854 JetBlue Flight history →	DCA 19:59	BOS 21:38	22%	14%	1.0%	66%
B6 2754 JetBlue Flight history →	DCA 19:11	BOS 20:52	25%	14%	1.0%	50%
AA 3207 American Flight history →	DCA 17:02	BOS 18:53	26%	11%	0.9%	43%
B6 1254 JetBlue Flight history →	DCA 14:16	BOS 15:51	26%	13%	0.7%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON