Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 11–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AA 5107 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 08:30	CAE 10:09	11%	4%	1.8%	75%
AA 5095 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 17:04	CAE 18:50	16%	9%	2.0%	64%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Columbia on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	DCA 06:12 → CLT 07:48AA 1521	3h 23m Charlotte	CLT 11:11 → CAE 12:20AA 5994 · flown by Piedmont	6h 08m	100%	91%
Delta Details →	DCA 06:00 → ATL 07:43DL 410	2h 22m Atlanta	ATL 10:05 → CAE 11:14DL 5091 · flown by Endeavor	5h 16m	99%	91%
Delta Details →	DCA 08:00 → ATL 09:51DL 343	2h 09m Atlanta	ATL 12:00 → CAE 12:59DL 2944	4h 59m	95%	82%
Delta Details →	DCA 12:27 → ATL 14:17DL 380	3h 17m Atlanta	ATL 17:34 → CAE 18:41DL 8904	6h 14m	98%	80%
Delta Details →	DCA 18:30 → ATL 20:35DL 850	2h 04m Atlanta	ATL 22:39 → CAE 23:43DL 3029	5h 13m	93%	75%
American Details →	DCA 10:20 → ORD 11:31AA 2023	1h 53m Chicago	ORD 13:24 → CAE 16:29AA 4275 · flown by Envoy	6h 09m	93%	73%
United Details →	DCA 09:30 → ORD 10:50UA 2774	3h 05m Chicago	ORD 13:55 → CAE 17:05UA 4523 · flown by GoJet	7h 35m	94%	70%
American Details →	DCA 17:50 → CLT 19:37AA 2182	3h 18m Charlotte	CLT 22:55 → CAE 23:58AA 5791 · flown by Piedmont	6h 08m	98%	70%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON