tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 86% chance of reaching Chattanooga on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 71% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Chattanooga on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → DCA 06:00 → ATL 07:43DL 410 2h 53m Atlanta ATL 10:36 → CHA 11:30DL 1737 5h 30m 99% 86%
UnitedDetails → DCA 06:30 → ORD 07:46UA 1793 2h 39m Chicago ORD 10:25 → CHA 13:16UA 4543 · flown by GoJet 6h 46m 99% 85%
DeltaDetails → DCA 08:59 → ATL 10:57DL 455 2h 56m Atlanta ATL 13:53 → CHA 14:43DL 3141 5h 44m 98% 84%
DeltaDetails → DCA 12:27 → ATL 14:17DL 380 1h 55m Atlanta ATL 16:12 → CHA 17:15DL 5179 · flown by Endeavor 4h 48m 96% 80%
AmericanDetails → DCA 06:12 → CLT 07:48AA 1521 3h 37m Charlotte CLT 11:25 → CHA 12:54AA 6127 · flown by Piedmont 6h 42m 100% 80%
DeltaDetails → DCA 16:00 → ATL 18:06DL 360 3h 44m Atlanta ATL 21:50 → CHA 22:47DL 1059 6h 47m 98% 79%
AmericanDetails → DCA 15:15 → CLT 16:48AA 2040 3h 36m Charlotte CLT 20:24 → CHA 21:52AA 5787 · flown by Piedmont 6h 37m 96% 74%
UnitedDetails → DCA 08:20 → IAH 10:41UA 697 2h 09m Houston IAH 12:50 → CHA 16:03UA 5091 · flown by SkyWest 7h 43m 98% 74%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → DCA 17:50 → CLT 19:37AA 2182 47m Charlotte CLT 20:24 → CHA 21:52AA 5787 · flown by Piedmont 4h 02m 71% 56%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON