Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, MQ 3345 at 11:51, with a 10% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


MQ 3345 Envoy	DCA 11:51	CID 13:14	10%	2%	0.8%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Cedar Rapids on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Cedar Rapids is 1 h behind Washington). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DCA 06:00 → MSP 07:35DL 1193	2h 35m Minneapolis	MSP 10:10 → CID 11:26DL 4899 · flown by Endeavor	6h 26m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	DCA 18:59 → MSP 20:52DL 2963	1h 16m Minneapolis	MSP 22:08 → CID 23:17DL 5290 · flown by Endeavor	5h 18m	93%	85%
American Details →	DCA 10:01 → DFW 12:20AA 795	3h 14m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 15:34 → CID 17:41AA 4318 · flown by Envoy	8h 40m	98%	76%
Delta Details →	DCA 16:00 → ATL 18:06DL 360	2h 50m Atlanta	ATL 20:56 → CID 22:03DL 2626	7h 03m	96%	73%
American Details →	DCA 13:47 → DFW 16:14AA 1177	2h 33m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 18:47 → CID 20:57AA 3798 · flown by Envoy	8h 10m	96%	69%
United Details →	DCA 17:10 → ORD 18:19UA 654	3h 02m Chicago	ORD 21:21 → CID 22:25UA 254	6h 15m	95%	65%
American Details →	DCA 15:13 → DFW 17:44AA 1624	3h 18m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 21:02 → CID 23:05AA 4235 · flown by Envoy	8h 52m	97%	56%
American Details →	DCA 15:15 → CLT 16:48AA 2040	1h 19m Charlotte	CLT 18:07 → CID 19:17AA 3127	5h 02m	86%	55%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON