Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: AA 580 at 05:01 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–24%.

Safest bet that day AA 580 DCA 05:01 → CLT 06:23 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 2002 DCA 19:19 → CLT 20:52 · 24% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 580 American	DCA 05:01	CLT 06:23	7%	3%	1.0%	no record
AA 1521 American Flight history →	DCA 06:12	CLT 07:48	8%	3%	0.9%	79%
AA 1518 American Flight history →	DCA 08:30	CLT 10:13	13%	4%	0.9%	86%
AA 761 American	DCA 11:59	CLT 13:28	17%	4%	1.0%	no record
OH 5527 PSA	DCA 13:03	CLT 14:34	19%	5%	0.8%	no record
AA 2040 American Flight history →	DCA 15:15	CLT 16:48	20%	6%	1.4%	79%
AA 2182 American Flight history →	DCA 17:50	CLT 19:37	22%	8%	1.1%	71%
AA 2002 American	DCA 19:19	CLT 20:52	24%	7%	1.1%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON