Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 5–15% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 4700 DCA 10:04 → CMH 11:46 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest AA 3441 DCA 20:57 → CMH 22:18 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 4700 American flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 10:04	CMH 11:46	5%	2%	0.6%	87%
AA 4398 American flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 15:54	CMH 17:33	7%	3%	0.6%	73%
AA 3441 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DCA 20:57	CMH 22:18	15%	3%	1.4%	74%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON