tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, OH 5647 at 16:02, with a 14% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
OH 5647 PSA DCA 16:02 CVG 17:54 14% 5% 1.0% no record
DL 5229 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record DCA 09:13 CVG 10:55 15% 4% 0.6% 85%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Hebron on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AmericanDetails → DCA 07:25 → BOS 08:50AA 3240 3h 26m Boston BOS 12:16 → CVG 14:52AA 4760 · flown by Republic 7h 27m 100% 90%
DeltaDetails → DCA 09:27 → BOS 11:24DL 5687 · flown by Republic 3h 17m Boston BOS 14:41 → CVG 17:16DL 5789 · flown by Republic 7h 49m 100% 89%
AmericanDetails → DCA 06:30 → JFK 07:57AA 4551 · flown by Republic 3h 13m New York JFK 11:10 → CVG 13:21AA 4609 · flown by Republic 6h 51m 100% 87%
DeltaDetails → DCA 06:00 → ATL 07:43DL 410 3h 32m Atlanta ATL 11:15 → CVG 12:38DL 3149 6h 38m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → DCA 08:00 → ATL 09:51DL 343 3h 58m Atlanta ATL 13:49 → CVG 15:12DL 3169 7h 12m 98% 86%
DeltaDetails → DCA 10:16 → ATL 12:05DL 926 3h 10m Atlanta ATL 15:15 → CVG 16:41DL 1008 6h 25m 99% 86%
AmericanDetails → DCA 06:12 → CLT 07:48AA 1521 3h 20m Charlotte CLT 11:08 → CVG 12:39AA 1533 6h 27m 100% 86%
DeltaDetails → DCA 12:00 → BOS 13:47DL 5693 · flown by Republic 3h 13m Boston BOS 17:00 → CVG 19:40DL 5620 · flown by Republic 7h 40m 99% 85%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON