Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 9–11% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AA 5473 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 10:04	DAY 11:52	9%	4%	0.9%	54%
AA 5284 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 16:23	DAY 18:09	11%	7%	0.9%	51%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dayton on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DCA 06:00 → ATL 07:43DL 410	1h 17m Atlanta	ATL 09:00 → DAY 10:30DL 3108	4h 30m	96%	85%
Delta Details →	DCA 08:59 → ATL 10:57DL 455	3h 03m Atlanta	ATL 14:00 → DAY 15:29DL 2763	6h 30m	98%	84%
Delta Details →	DCA 16:00 → ATL 18:06DL 360	2h 04m Atlanta	ATL 20:10 → DAY 21:44DL 3167	5h 44m	95%	78%
American Details →	DCA 10:01 → DFW 12:20AA 795	1h 59m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 14:19 → DAY 17:57AA 5517 · flown by PSA	7h 56m	96%	78%
American Details →	DCA 15:15 → CLT 16:48AA 2040	2h 07m Charlotte	CLT 18:55 → DAY 20:37AA 5435 · flown by PSA	5h 22m	94%	77%
American Details →	DCA 11:59 → DFW 14:23AA 1623	2h 53m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 17:16 → DAY 20:48AA 5609 · flown by PSA	8h 49m	98%	76%
American Details →	DCA 17:39 → PHL 18:55AA 5248 · flown by PSA	54m Philadelphia	PHL 19:49 → DAY 22:04AA 5064 · flown by PSA	4h 25m	83%	73%
American Details →	DCA 15:13 → DFW 17:44AA 1624	2h 29m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 20:13 → DAY 23:44AA 5245 · flown by PSA	8h 31m	94%	71%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON