Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 8–15% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day F9 685 DCA 07:00 → DEN 09:01 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time Riskiest UA 746 DCA 16:13 → DEN 18:25 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


F9 685 Frontier Flight history →	DCA 07:00	DEN 09:01	8%	3%	0.8%	86%
F9 689 Frontier Flight history →	DCA 18:00	DEN 20:07	12%	4%	0.8%	68%
UA 746 United Flight history →	DCA 16:13	DEN 18:25	15%	5%	0.6%	80%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	DCA 05:54 → DTW 07:26DL 2869	1h 14m Detroit	DTW 08:40 → DEN 09:47DL 1113	5h 53m	97%	87%
Delta Details →	DCA 06:00 → ATL 07:43DL 410	1h 01m Atlanta	ATL 08:44 → DEN 09:53DL 346	5h 53m	94%	79%
Delta Details →	DCA 12:00 → MSP 13:41DL 2958	46m Minneapolis	MSP 14:27 → DEN 15:30DL 1025	5h 30m	84%	74%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON