Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 9 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: AA 2007 at 05:00 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 21–25%.

Safest bet that day AA 2007 DCA 05:00 → DFW 07:22 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest AA 1158 DCA 19:08 → DFW 21:34 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 61% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2007 American Flight history →	DCA 05:00	DFW 07:22	6%	3%	1.2%	90%
AA 1839 American Flight history →	DCA 06:59	DFW 09:25	6%	3%	1.2%	90%
AA 1978 American Flight history →	DCA 07:59	DFW 10:31	9%	4%	1.2%	84%
AA 795 American Flight history →	DCA 10:01	DFW 12:20	15%	4%	1.3%	90%
AA 1623 American Flight history →	DCA 11:59	DFW 14:23	16%	5%	1.3%	76%
AA 1177 American Flight history →	DCA 13:47	DFW 16:14	17%	6%	1.5%	78%
AA 1624 American Flight history →	DCA 15:13	DFW 17:44	17%	7%	1.8%	82%
AA 1414 American Flight history →	DCA 17:11	DFW 19:41	21%	8%	3.3%	65%
AA 1158 American Flight history →	DCA 19:08	DFW 21:34	25%	17%	4.9%	61%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON