Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, AA 5432 at 14:04, with a 16% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AA 5432 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 14:04	DSM 15:54	16%	7%	1.1%	70%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Des Moines on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Des Moines is 1 h behind Washington). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DCA 06:00 → MSP 07:35DL 1193	1h 26m Minneapolis	MSP 09:01 → DSM 10:28DL 4998 · flown by Endeavor	5h 28m	97%	90%
Delta Details →	DCA 07:45 → MSP 09:25DL 1493	3h 25m Minneapolis	MSP 12:50 → DSM 14:04DL 5490 · flown by Endeavor	7h 19m	99%	88%
Delta Details →	DCA 05:54 → DTW 07:26DL 2869	1h 17m Detroit	DTW 08:43 → DSM 09:49DL 5058 · flown by Endeavor	4h 55m	97%	88%
Delta Details →	DCA 06:00 → ATL 07:43DL 410	1h 50m Atlanta	ATL 09:33 → DSM 10:45DL 1704	5h 45m	98%	87%
Delta Details →	DCA 08:59 → ATL 10:57DL 455	3h 08m Atlanta	ATL 14:05 → DSM 15:20DL 2094	7h 21m	98%	85%
American Details →	DCA 06:12 → CLT 07:48AA 1521	2h 54m Charlotte	CLT 10:42 → DSM 12:12AA 2962	7h 00m	100%	84%
United Details →	DCA 06:00 → IAH 08:13UA 1450	3h 44m Houston	IAH 11:57 → DSM 14:25UA 6166 · flown by Mesa	9h 25m	100%	83%
Delta Details →	DCA 15:07 → MSP 16:56DL 2983	2h 58m Minneapolis	MSP 19:54 → DSM 20:59DL 5253 · flown by Endeavor	6h 52m	99%	82%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON