Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: DL 2869 at 05:54 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 8–14%.

Safest bet that day DL 2869 DCA 05:54 → DTW 07:26 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest DL 1454 DCA 17:29 → DTW 19:15 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 64% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2869 Delta Flight history →	DCA 05:54	DTW 07:26	4%	2%	0.8%	94%
AA 4616 American flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 20:14	DTW 22:06	8%	3%	1.0%	84%
AA 5660 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 10:04	DTW 11:55	10%	4%	1.1%	85%
DL 1558 Delta Flight history →	DCA 09:39	DTW 11:09	12%	3%	0.8%	86%
DL 2476 Delta Flight history →	DCA 12:23	DTW 14:00	12%	3%	0.8%	87%
DL 1454 Delta Flight history →	DCA 17:29	DTW 19:15	14%	5%	0.9%	64%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON