tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, OH 5411 at 10:04, with a 14% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
OH 5411 PSA DCA 10:04 ECP 11:35 14% 4% 1.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Panama City Beach on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Panama City Beach is 1 h behind Washington). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → DCA 06:00 → ATL 07:43DL 410 2h 58m Atlanta ATL 10:41 → ECP 10:48DL 3045 5h 48m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → DCA 08:00 → ATL 09:51DL 343 2h 36m Atlanta ATL 12:27 → ECP 12:40DL 2823 5h 40m 96% 84%
DeltaDetails → DCA 10:16 → ATL 12:05DL 926 3h 50m Atlanta ATL 15:55 → ECP 16:06DL 3094 6h 50m 100% 82%
AmericanDetails → DCA 08:30 → CLT 10:13AA 1518 1h 54m Charlotte CLT 12:07 → ECP 13:00AA 5262 · flown by PSA 5h 30m 93% 76%
UnitedDetails → DCA 08:20 → IAH 10:41UA 697 1h 35m Houston IAH 12:16 → ECP 14:14UA 4969 · flown by CommuteAir 6h 54m 97% 76%
DeltaDetails → DCA 18:30 → ATL 20:35DL 850 2h 16m Atlanta ATL 22:51 → ECP 22:58DL 3131 5h 28m 93% 75%
UnitedDetails → DCA 06:00 → IAH 08:13UA 1450 1h 08m Houston IAH 09:21 → ECP 11:01UA 4225 · flown by CommuteAir 6h 01m 97% 75%
UnitedDetails → DCA 10:58 → IAH 13:19UA 2190 1h 20m Houston IAH 14:39 → ECP 16:19UA 4902 · flown by CommuteAir 6h 21m 94% 69%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON