Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: no forecasts for this route’s flights; their 12-month records are below.

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


UA 4167 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	DCA 06:00	EWR 07:19	7%	4%	2.2%	93%
UA 4184 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	DCA 10:07	EWR 11:29	13%	12%	5.6%	87%
UA 4442 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	DCA 13:00	EWR 14:22	33%	18%	4.6%	67%
UA 4560 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	DCA 15:10	EWR 16:30	36%	21%	8.3%	64%
UA 4180 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	DCA 17:55	EWR 19:28	43%	24%	11.4%	57%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON