tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 79% chance of reaching Key West on time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
YX 4389 Republic DCA 08:25 EYW 11:55 13% 3% 4.1% no record
YX 4461 Republic DCA 10:34 EYW 14:02 15% 3% 4.8% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Key West on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → DCA 12:27 → ATL 14:17DL 380 3h 36m Atlanta ATL 17:53 → EYW 19:51DL 2815 7h 24m 98% 80%
DeltaDetails → DCA 06:00 → ATL 07:43DL 410 1h 12m Atlanta ATL 08:55 → EYW 10:50DL 1281 4h 50m 96% 79%
DeltaDetails → DCA 10:16 → ATL 12:05DL 926 3h 23m Atlanta ATL 15:28 → EYW 17:25DL 2168 7h 09m 100% 77%
AmericanDetails → DCA 06:12 → CLT 07:48AA 1521 3h 05m Charlotte CLT 10:53 → EYW 13:10AA 1816 6h 58m 100% 75%
UnitedDetails → DCA 06:30 → ORD 07:46UA 1793 3h 24m Chicago ORD 11:10 → EYW 15:31UA 752 9h 01m 99% 71%
DeltaDetails → DCA 08:00 → ATL 09:51DL 343 1h 10m Atlanta ATL 11:01 → EYW 13:00DL 1472 5h 00m 87% 67%
AmericanDetails → DCA 08:20 → MIA 11:17AA 422 1h 08m Miami MIA 12:25 → EYW 13:30AA 3577 · flown by Envoy 5h 10m 86% 63%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON