Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: B6 379 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 14–30%.

Safest bet that day B6 379 DCA 06:00 → FLL 08:32 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 77% on time Riskiest B6 1579 DCA 16:41 → FLL 19:35 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 61% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


B6 379 JetBlue Flight history →	DCA 06:00	FLL 08:32	11%	4%	4.8%	77%
WN 1492 Southwest	DCA 07:27	FLL 10:10	14%	2%	4.7%	no record
AA 1893 American Flight history →	DCA 08:03	FLL 10:55	21%	4%	3.4%	89%worse than usual
B6 579 JetBlue Flight history →	DCA 07:59	FLL 10:40	23%	5%	3.4%	81%
B6 1579 JetBlue Flight history →	DCA 16:41	FLL 19:35	30%	12%	2.4%	61%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON