Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 14–15% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AA 5039 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 11:39	GRR 13:37	14%	4%	1.4%	73%
AA 5376 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 19:59	GRR 21:58	15%	8%	2.3%	61%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Grand Rapids on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DCA 07:45 → MSP 09:25DL 1493	3h 42m Minneapolis	MSP 13:07 → GRR 15:36DL 1245	7h 51m	100%	90%
Delta Details →	DCA 06:00 → ATL 07:43DL 410	2h 42m Atlanta	ATL 10:25 → GRR 12:21DL 2547	6h 21m	99%	88%
American Details →	DCA 17:39 → PHL 18:55AA 5248 · flown by PSA	2h 56m Philadelphia	PHL 21:51 → GRR 00:10 +1AA 5905 · flown by Piedmont	6h 31m	98%	87%
Delta Details →	DCA 15:07 → MSP 16:56DL 2983	3h 37m Minneapolis	MSP 20:33 → GRR 22:59DL 1711	7h 52m	99%	86%
Delta Details →	DCA 06:00 → MSP 07:35DL 1193	50m Minneapolis	MSP 08:25 → GRR 10:53DL 3990 · flown by SkyWest	4h 53m	93%	85%
United Details →	DCA 06:00 → EWR 07:19UA 4167 · flown by GoJet	1h 46m Newark	EWR 09:05 → GRR 11:17UA 3486 · flown by Republic	5h 17m	96%	84%
Delta Details →	DCA 12:27 → ATL 14:17DL 380	2h 44m Atlanta	ATL 17:01 → GRR 18:58DL 2058	6h 31m	98%	84%
United Details →	DCA 06:30 → ORD 07:46UA 1793	2h 51m Chicago	ORD 10:37 → GRR 12:50UA 1297	6h 20m	99%	84%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON