Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, YX 4783 at 08:35, with a 7% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


YX 4783 Republic	DCA 08:35	GSO 10:21	7%	2%	0.8%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Greensboro on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	DCA 06:12 → CLT 07:48AA 1521	3h 24m Charlotte	CLT 11:12 → GSO 12:17AA 5796 · flown by Piedmont	6h 05m	100%	88%
Delta Details →	DCA 08:59 → ATL 10:57DL 455	3h 18m Atlanta	ATL 14:15 → GSO 15:30DL 2539	6h 31m	98%	87%
Delta Details →	DCA 08:00 → ATL 09:51DL 343	2h 59m Atlanta	ATL 12:50 → GSO 14:13DL 3060	6h 13m	96%	87%
Delta Details →	DCA 12:27 → ATL 14:17DL 380	2h 29m Atlanta	ATL 16:46 → GSO 18:06DL 3050	5h 39m	98%	85%
American Details →	DCA 06:59 → DFW 09:25AA 1839	57m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 10:22 → GSO 14:12AA 3886 · flown by Envoy	7h 13m	92%	81%
American Details →	DCA 17:39 → PHL 18:55AA 5248 · flown by PSA	3h 15m Philadelphia	PHL 22:10 → GSO 23:58AA 6012 · flown by Piedmont	6h 19m	99%	80%
Delta Details →	DCA 05:54 → DTW 07:26DL 2869	1h 28m Detroit	DTW 08:54 → GSO 10:41DL 4966 · flown by Endeavor	4h 47m	97%	80%
Delta Details →	DCA 16:00 → ATL 18:06DL 360	2h 53m Atlanta	ATL 20:59 → GSO 22:20DL 1617	6h 20m	97%	79%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	DCA 17:50 → CLT 19:37AA 2182	49m Charlotte	CLT 20:26 → GSO 21:19AA 4147 · flown by Envoy	3h 29m	73%	56%
Delta Details →	DCA 14:00 → LGA 15:22DL 5747 · flown by Republic	53m New York	LGA 16:15 → GSO 18:22DL 5107 · flown by Endeavor	4h 26m	74%	46%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON