Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 74% chance of reaching Houston on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 934 Southwest	DCA 06:57	HOU 09:17	3%	1%	0.7%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Houston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Houston is 1 h behind Washington). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	DCA 05:00 → DFW 07:22AA 2007	1h 40m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 09:02 → HOU 10:31AA 9754	6h 31m	98%	79%
Delta Details →	DCA 10:16 → ATL 12:05DL 926	3h 07m Atlanta	ATL 15:12 → HOU 16:22DL 2381	7h 06m	99%	78%
Delta Details →	DCA 06:00 → ATL 07:43DL 410	47m Atlanta	ATL 08:30 → HOU 09:34DL 1509	4h 34m	87%	74%
Delta Details →	DCA 16:00 → ATL 18:06DL 360	2h 39m Atlanta	ATL 20:45 → HOU 21:51DL 2051	6h 51m	96%	74%
American Details →	DCA 13:47 → DFW 16:14AA 1177	2h 23m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 18:37 → HOU 19:58AA 3391 · flown by Envoy	7h 11m	96%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON