Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: AA 5289 at 01:03 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 12–17%.

Safest bet that day AA 5289 DCA 01:03 → HPN 02:39 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 61% on time Riskiest AA 5236 DCA 16:59 → HPN 18:27 · 17% chance 15+ min late · usually 54% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 5289 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 01:03	HPN 02:39	7%	3%	1.1%	61%
AA 5282 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 09:20	HPN 10:56	12%	4%	1.4%	76%
OH 5046 PSA	DCA 13:31	HPN 15:14	13%	5%	1.0%	no record
AA 5236 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 16:59	HPN 18:27	17%	8%	1.5%	54%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON