Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 11–12% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


OH 5143 PSA	DCA 10:05	HSV 11:17	11%	5%	1.2%	no record
OH 5261 PSA	DCA 17:35	HSV 18:45	12%	8%	1.9%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Huntsville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Huntsville is 1 h behind Washington). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DCA 06:00 → ATL 07:43DL 410	3h 45m Atlanta	ATL 11:28 → HSV 11:32DL 2182	6h 32m	99%	88%
Delta Details →	DCA 10:16 → ATL 12:05DL 926	3h 52m Atlanta	ATL 15:57 → HSV 16:02DL 3026	6h 46m	100%	88%
United Details →	DCA 06:00 → IAH 08:13UA 1450	1h 52m Houston	IAH 10:05 → HSV 12:08UA 4315 · flown by CommuteAir	7h 08m	99%	86%
Delta Details →	DCA 12:27 → ATL 14:17DL 380	3h 53m Atlanta	ATL 18:10 → HSV 18:10DL 3171	6h 43m	98%	83%
American Details →	DCA 08:30 → CLT 10:13AA 1518	3h 17m Charlotte	CLT 13:30 → HSV 14:12AA 5806 · flown by Piedmont	6h 42m	95%	78%
American Details →	DCA 17:03 → ORD 18:24AA 1189	4h 00m Chicago	ORD 22:24 → HSV 00:08 +1AA 4986 · flown by SkyWest	8h 05m	99%	75%
American Details →	DCA 15:15 → CLT 16:48AA 2040	3h 09m Charlotte	CLT 19:57 → HSV 20:34AA 5485 · flown by PSA	6h 19m	96%	75%
Delta Details →	DCA 18:30 → ATL 20:35DL 850	1h 59m Atlanta	ATL 22:34 → HSV 22:33DL 3022	5h 03m	93%	75%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON