Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 6–12% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


YX 4784 Republic	DCA 08:26	ILM 10:13	6%	2%	0.8%	no record
AA 5313 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 13:23	ILM 15:07	12%	4%	1.3%	79%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Wilmington on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DCA 07:00 → BOS 08:39DL 5698 · flown by Republic	3h 06m Boston	BOS 11:45 → ILM 13:57DL 5695 · flown by Republic	6h 57m	100%	88%
Delta Details →	DCA 06:00 → ATL 07:43DL 410	2h 02m Atlanta	ATL 09:45 → ILM 11:18DL 376	5h 18m	98%	87%
Delta Details →	DCA 08:59 → ATL 10:57DL 455	3h 15m Atlanta	ATL 14:12 → ILM 15:38DL 1292	6h 39m	98%	83%
Delta Details →	DCA 12:00 → LGA 13:18DL 5742 · flown by Republic	2h 40m New York	LGA 15:58 → ILM 17:35DL 5212 · flown by Endeavor	5h 35m	97%	81%
American Details →	DCA 08:30 → CLT 10:13AA 1518	2h 11m Charlotte	CLT 12:24 → ILM 13:39AA 5416 · flown by PSA	5h 09m	95%	78%
Delta Details →	DCA 16:00 → ATL 18:06DL 360	2h 49m Atlanta	ATL 20:55 → ILM 22:31DL 3070	6h 31m	96%	75%
American Details →	DCA 06:32 → ORD 07:39AA 523	1h 04m Chicago	ORD 08:43 → ILM 12:03AA 3970 · flown by Envoy	5h 31m	87%	73%
American Details →	DCA 17:50 → CLT 19:37AA 2182	2h 11m Charlotte	CLT 21:48 → ILM 22:54AA 2831	5h 04m	93%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON