Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 8–11% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 4701 DCA 09:59 → IND 11:58 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest AA 4501 DCA 17:18 → IND 19:18 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 68% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 4701 American flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 09:59	IND 11:58	8%	2%	0.7%	88%
AA 4452 American flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 13:59	IND 15:56	9%	3%	0.7%	77%
AA 4520 American flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 12:03	IND 14:05	10%	3%	0.7%	71%
AA 4501 American flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 17:18	IND 19:18	11%	4%	0.9%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON