tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 88% chance of reaching Las Vegas on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 56% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 1211 Southwest DCA 07:32 LAS 09:49 9% 2% 0.6% no record
AA 2149 American DCA 08:02 LAS 10:17 16% 3% 0.8% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Las Vegas on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Las Vegas is 3 h behind Washington). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → DCA 06:00 → MSP 07:35DL 1193 1h 38m Minneapolis MSP 09:13 → LAS 10:31DL 2262 7h 31m 98% 88%
DeltaDetails → DCA 07:45 → MSP 09:25DL 1493 1h 45m Minneapolis MSP 11:10 → LAS 12:26DL 2238 7h 41m 98% 86%
UnitedDetails → DCA 06:00 → IAH 08:13UA 1450 3h 42m Houston IAH 11:55 → LAS 13:13UA 1524 10h 13m 100% 85%
DeltaDetails → DCA 05:54 → DTW 07:26DL 2869 1h 33m Detroit DTW 08:59 → LAS 10:12DL 334 7h 18m 97% 83%
SouthwestDetails → DCA 08:17 → STL 09:50WN 1519 3h 57m St Louis STL 13:47 → LAS 15:34WN 4467 10h 17m 99% 82%
DeltaDetails → DCA 06:00 → ATL 07:43DL 410 2h 12m Atlanta ATL 09:55 → LAS 11:00DL 945 8h 00m 99% 81%
FrontierDetails → DCA 07:00 → DEN 09:01F9 685 3h 46m Denver DEN 12:47 → LAS 13:47F9 4967 9h 47m 100% 81%
UnitedDetails → DCA 08:20 → IAH 10:41UA 697 3h 39m Houston IAH 14:20 → LAS 15:37UA 1971 10h 17m 99% 80%
Tight connection: often missed
JetBlueDetails → DCA 16:41 → FLL 19:35B6 1579 52m Fort Lauderdale FLL 20:27 → LAS 22:32B6 607 8h 51m 65% 43%
UnitedDetails → DCA 17:55 → EWR 19:28UA 4180 · flown by GoJet 59m Newark EWR 20:27 → LAS 22:59UA 1283 8h 04m 56% 33%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON