Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 12–18% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 392 DCA 16:45 → LAX 19:19 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 75% on time Riskiest AS 5 DCA 09:59 → LAX 12:27 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 71% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 392 Delta Flight history →	DCA 16:45	LAX 19:19	12%	4%	0.9%	75%
AA 1966 American Flight history →	DCA 08:40	LAX 11:19	15%	4%	0.7%	83%
AA 3283 American Flight history →	DCA 18:01	LAX 20:41	17%	5%	0.7%	70%
AS 5 Alaska Flight history →	DCA 09:59	LAX 12:27	18%	3%	0.8%	71%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	DCA 06:00 → MSP 07:35DL 1193	1h 45m Minneapolis	MSP 09:20 → LAX 11:10DL 2102	8h 10m	98%	86%
Delta Details →	DCA 05:54 → DTW 07:26DL 2869	1h 09m Detroit	DTW 08:35 → LAX 10:20DL 523	7h 26m	97%	82%
Delta Details →	DCA 09:39 → DTW 11:09DL 1558	1h 41m Detroit	DTW 12:50 → LAX 14:35DL 634	7h 56m	96%	81%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON