Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 10 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: YX 5873 at 05:55 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–24%.

Safest bet that day YX 5873 DCA 05:55 → LGA 07:09 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest DL 5763 DCA 17:40 → LGA 19:00 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 51% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


YX 5873 Republic	DCA 05:55	LGA 07:09	4%	2%	1.4%	no record
YX 5843 Republic	DCA 06:47	LGA 07:57	5%	2%	1.4%	no record
YX 4366 Republic	DCA 09:03	LGA 10:32	10%	3%	1.6%	no record
DL 5742 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 12:00	LGA 13:18	15%	5%	2.2%	75%
DL 5772 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 09:45	LGA 10:55	15%	3%	1.6%	81%
YX 4583 Republic	DCA 18:15	LGA 19:49	16%	6%	2.2%	no record
DL 5747 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 14:00	LGA 15:22	20%	8%	1.9%	67%
AA 4730 American flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 14:09	LGA 15:25	21%	8%	1.7%	62%
DL 5752 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 19:40	LGA 21:04	21%	8%	2.5%	48%
DL 5763 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 17:40	LGA 19:00	24%	10%	2.9%	51%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON