tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, AA 3627 at 16:59, with a 13% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AA 3627 American flown by Envoy Flight history → DCA 16:59 LIT 18:50 13% 4% 0.8% 72%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Little Rock on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Little Rock is 1 h behind Washington). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → DCA 06:00 → ATL 07:43DL 410 2h 05m Atlanta ATL 09:48 → LIT 10:28DL 3040 5h 28m 98% 85%
AmericanDetails → DCA 06:59 → DFW 09:25AA 1839 2h 21m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 11:46 → LIT 13:08AA 3898 · flown by Envoy 7h 09m 99% 82%
DeltaDetails → DCA 10:16 → ATL 12:05DL 926 3h 09m Atlanta ATL 15:14 → LIT 15:49DL 3027 6h 33m 99% 82%
DeltaDetails → DCA 12:27 → ATL 14:17DL 380 2h 15m Atlanta ATL 16:32 → LIT 17:12DL 3025 5h 45m 96% 81%
AmericanDetails → DCA 10:01 → DFW 12:20AA 795 3h 29m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 15:49 → LIT 17:10AA 4309 · flown by Envoy 8h 09m 100% 79%
UnitedDetails → DCA 06:00 → IAH 08:13UA 1450 1h 38m Houston IAH 09:51 → LIT 11:25UA 4371 · flown by CommuteAir 6h 25m 99% 79%
AmericanDetails → DCA 16:02 → ORD 17:22AA 1637 2h 27m Chicago ORD 19:49 → LIT 21:49AA 3561 · flown by Envoy 6h 47m 98% 77%
DeltaDetails → DCA 18:30 → ATL 20:35DL 850 2h 05m Atlanta ATL 22:40 → LIT 23:14DL 2083 5h 44m 92% 70%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON