tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: WN 1497 at 05:58 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 14%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 1497 Southwest DCA 05:58 MCI 07:37 3% 1% 0.8% no record
OH 5472 PSA DCA 14:00 MCI 16:02 14% 4% 1.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Kansas City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Kansas City is 1 h behind Washington). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → DCA 05:54 → DTW 07:26DL 2869 1h 14m Detroit DTW 08:40 → MCI 09:44DL 2826 4h 50m 97% 87%
DeltaDetails → DCA 12:00 → MSP 13:41DL 2958 1h 38m Minneapolis MSP 15:19 → MCI 16:55DL 1774 5h 55m 97% 86%
DeltaDetails → DCA 06:00 → ATL 07:43DL 410 3h 22m Atlanta ATL 11:05 → MCI 12:12DL 2747 7h 12m 99% 84%
DeltaDetails → DCA 15:07 → MSP 16:56DL 2983 3h 34m Minneapolis MSP 20:30 → MCI 21:59DL 1657 7h 52m 99% 83%
DeltaDetails → DCA 10:16 → ATL 12:05DL 926 3h 14m Atlanta ATL 15:19 → MCI 16:29DL 1660 7h 13m 99% 82%
UnitedDetails → DCA 08:20 → IAH 10:41UA 697 1h 24m Houston IAH 12:05 → MCI 14:15UA 6152 · flown by Mesa 6h 55m 95% 81%
DeltaDetails → DCA 09:39 → DTW 11:09DL 1558 1h 11m Detroit DTW 12:20 → MCI 13:23DL 2741 4h 44m 91% 78%
DeltaDetails → DCA 12:00 → LGA 13:18DL 5742 · flown by Republic 2h 10m New York LGA 15:28 → MCI 17:44DL 2068 6h 44m 97% 78%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON