Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 12 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 1500 at 06:07 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20–21%.

Safest bet that day WN 1500 DCA 06:07 → MCO 08:24 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1502 DCA 17:12 → MCO 19:41 · 21% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1500 Southwest	DCA 06:07	MCO 08:24	4%	1%	4.7%	no record
DL 1003 Delta Flight history →	DCA 07:00	MCO 09:22	9%	3%	4.1%	82%
AA 592 American Flight history →	DCA 06:30	MCO 08:55	10%	2%	5.4%	90%
B6 2423 JetBlue Flight history →	DCA 07:25	MCO 09:46	13%	4%	6.8%	79%
WN 1487 Southwest	DCA 12:02	MCO 14:21	16%	4%	4.4%	no record
DL 1621 Delta	DCA 14:51	MCO 17:18	17%	6%	2.1%	no record
AA 2128 American Flight history →	DCA 08:22	MCO 10:57	18%	4%	7.0%	74%
AA 1153 American Flight history →	DCA 11:02	MCO 13:37	18%	5%	6.1%	89%
AA 2509 American Flight history →	DCA 14:05	MCO 16:36	19%	6%	2.8%	76%
B6 1923 JetBlue Flight history →	DCA 11:50	MCO 14:04	20%	7%	5.3%	71%
AA 2139 American Flight history →	DCA 20:12	MCO 22:43	20%	9%	1.9%	57%
WN 1502 Southwest	DCA 17:12	MCO 19:41	21%	7%	1.2%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON