Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 8–11% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AA 5283 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 00:14	MHT 01:35	8%	3%	1.2%	58%
AA 5150 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 09:51	MHT 11:46	11%	3%	1.3%	79%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Manchester on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	DCA 17:39 → PHL 18:55AA 5248 · flown by PSA	3h 05m Philadelphia	PHL 22:00 → MHT 23:38AA 5966 · flown by Piedmont	5h 59m	99%	81%
American Details →	DCA 15:15 → CLT 16:48AA 2040	3h 45m Charlotte	CLT 20:33 → MHT 22:51AA 5033 · flown by PSA	7h 36m	96%	78%
American Details →	DCA 16:02 → ORD 17:22AA 1637	2h 55m Chicago	ORD 20:17 → MHT 23:47AA 4149 · flown by Envoy	7h 45m	99%	77%
American Details →	DCA 06:32 → ORD 07:39AA 523	56m Chicago	ORD 08:35 → MHT 12:02AA 3921 · flown by Envoy	5h 30m	87%	75%
American Details →	DCA 10:20 → ORD 11:31AA 2023	2h 33m Chicago	ORD 14:04 → MHT 17:28AA 3720 · flown by Envoy	7h 08m	95%	75%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON