Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 11 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: AA 1178 at 05:00 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 21–29%.

Safest bet that day AA 1178 DCA 05:00 → MIA 07:56 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest AA 1299 DCA 14:59 → MIA 17:49 · 30% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1178 American Flight history →	DCA 05:00	MIA 07:56	8%	2%	1.3%	93%
AA 2344 American Flight history →	DCA 05:00	MIA 07:43	10%	3%	1.3%	96%
AA 401 American Flight history →	DCA 10:02	MIA 12:58	18%	3%	1.3%	93%worse than usual
AA 422 American Flight history →	DCA 08:20	MIA 11:17	20%	3%	1.1%	84%
AA 2214 American	DCA 21:04	MIA 23:48	21%	7%	1.0%	no record
AA 582 American	DCA 19:08	MIA 21:58	26%	8%	0.9%	no record
DL 2576 Delta Flight history →	DCA 14:43	MIA 17:33	28%	8%	0.8%	67%
AA 1627 American Flight history →	DCA 11:55	MIA 14:38	28%	5%	1.1%	76%
AA 973 American	DCA 17:27	MIA 20:21	29%	9%	1.1%	no record
AA 1612 American Flight history →	DCA 13:50	MIA 16:43	30%	7%	1.1%	62%
AA 1299 American	DCA 14:59	MIA 17:49	30%	8%	1.0%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON