Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: WN 174 at 06:02 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 15%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


WN 174 Southwest	DCA 06:02	MKE 07:05	3%	1%	0.7%	no record
AA 5656 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 17:40	MKE 18:53	15%	8%	1.8%	66%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Milwaukee on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Milwaukee is 1 h behind Washington). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DCA 06:00 → MSP 07:35DL 1193	1h 17m Minneapolis	MSP 08:52 → MKE 10:11DL 1781	5h 11m	97%	91%
Delta Details →	DCA 07:00 → BOS 08:39DL 5698 · flown by Republic	3h 35m Boston	BOS 12:14 → MKE 14:04DL 5614 · flown by Republic	8h 04m	100%	90%
Delta Details →	DCA 06:00 → ATL 07:43DL 410	3h 06m Atlanta	ATL 10:49 → MKE 11:51DL 1151	6h 51m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	DCA 05:54 → DTW 07:26DL 2869	1h 13m Detroit	DTW 08:39 → MKE 08:56DL 3102	4h 02m	97%	88%
Southwest Details →	DCA 08:17 → STL 09:50WN 1519	3h 54m St Louis	STL 13:44 → MKE 15:04WN 4344	7h 47m	99%	86%
Delta Details →	DCA 10:16 → ATL 12:05DL 926	3h 50m Atlanta	ATL 15:55 → MKE 16:59DL 1206	7h 43m	100%	86%
Delta Details →	DCA 08:00 → ATL 09:51DL 343	3h 02m Atlanta	ATL 12:53 → MKE 13:50DL 1246	6h 50m	96%	86%
Delta Details →	DCA 12:00 → LGA 13:18DL 5742 · flown by Republic	2h 42m New York	LGA 16:00 → MKE 17:48DL 5780 · flown by Republic	6h 48m	98%	85%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON