Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 6 nonstops are 5–12% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 1193 DCA 06:00 → MSP 07:35 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest OH 5183 DCA 14:20 → MSP 16:28 · 12% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1193 Delta Flight history →	DCA 06:00	MSP 07:35	5%	2%	0.6%	87%
DL 1493 Delta Flight history →	DCA 07:45	MSP 09:25	6%	2%	0.6%	81%
DL 2983 Delta Flight history →	DCA 15:07	MSP 16:56	7%	3%	0.6%	84%
DL 2963 Delta Flight history →	DCA 18:59	MSP 20:52	10%	5%	0.6%	74%
DL 2958 Delta Flight history →	DCA 12:00	MSP 13:41	10%	3%	0.6%	78%
OH 5183 PSA	DCA 14:20	MSP 16:28	12%	6%	1.1%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON