tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 4–9% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
YX 4464 Republic DCA 07:48 MYR 09:36 4% 3% 0.9% no record
YX 4341 Republic DCA 14:03 MYR 15:53 9% 4% 0.9% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Myrtle Beach on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AmericanDetails → DCA 06:12 → CLT 07:48AA 1521 3h 32m Charlotte CLT 11:20 → MYR 12:36AA 5883 · flown by Piedmont 6h 24m 100% 93%
DeltaDetails → DCA 05:54 → DTW 07:26DL 2869 1h 19m Detroit DTW 08:45 → MYR 10:39DL 1145 4h 45m 97% 86%
DeltaDetails → DCA 08:59 → ATL 10:57DL 455 2h 57m Atlanta ATL 13:54 → MYR 15:14DL 3182 6h 15m 98% 82%
DeltaDetails → DCA 06:00 → ATL 07:43DL 410 1h 49m Atlanta ATL 09:32 → MYR 10:49DL 3047 4h 49m 98% 82%
DeltaDetails → DCA 07:00 → BOS 08:39DL 5698 · flown by Republic 2h 56m Boston BOS 11:35 → MYR 13:53DL 3087 6h 53m 99% 81%
DeltaDetails → DCA 16:00 → ATL 18:06DL 360 2h 24m Atlanta ATL 20:30 → MYR 21:49DL 3074 5h 49m 96% 72%
AmericanDetails → DCA 15:15 → CLT 16:48AA 2040 3h 20m Charlotte CLT 20:08 → MYR 21:19AA 1085 6h 04m 96% 69%
UnitedDetails → DCA 13:00 → EWR 14:22UA 4442 · flown by GoJet 1h 29m Newark EWR 15:51 → MYR 17:59UA 3589 · flown by Republic 4h 59m 78% 57%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON