Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, AA 5017 at 12:28, with a 13% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AA 5017 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 12:28	OKC 14:48	13%	6%	2.1%	70%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Oklahoma City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Oklahoma City is 1 h behind Washington). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DCA 06:00 → ATL 07:43DL 410	2h 10m Atlanta	ATL 09:53 → OKC 11:08DL 2490	6h 08m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	DCA 08:00 → ATL 09:51DL 343	3h 59m Atlanta	ATL 13:50 → OKC 14:56DL 2862	7h 56m	98%	82%
American Details →	DCA 06:12 → CLT 07:48AA 1521	2h 55m Charlotte	CLT 10:43 → OKC 12:25AA 1626	7h 13m	100%	81%
American Details →	DCA 05:00 → DFW 07:22AA 2007	1h 54m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 09:16 → OKC 10:29AA 1902	6h 29m	98%	76%
Delta Details →	DCA 15:07 → MSP 16:56DL 2983	1h 14m Minneapolis	MSP 18:10 → OKC 20:15DL 3791 · flown by SkyWest	6h 08m	94%	76%
American Details →	DCA 06:59 → DFW 09:25AA 1839	1h 15m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 10:40 → OKC 11:53AA 3099	5h 54m	98%	73%
Delta Details →	DCA 06:00 → MSP 07:35DL 1193	1h 30m Minneapolis	MSP 09:05 → OKC 11:16DL 5142 · flown by Endeavor	6h 16m	98%	72%
Delta Details →	DCA 12:27 → ATL 14:17DL 380	3h 48m Atlanta	ATL 18:05 → OKC 19:16DL 2784	7h 49m	98%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON