tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 82% chance of reaching Ontario on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Ontario on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Ontario is 3 h behind Washington). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → DCA 06:00 → ATL 07:43DL 410 1h 38m Atlanta ATL 09:21 → ONT 10:38DL 665 7h 38m 97% 82%
FrontierDetails → DCA 18:00 → DEN 20:07F9 689 2h 22m Denver DEN 22:29 → ONT 23:50F9 1261 8h 50m 97% 79%
AmericanDetails → DCA 07:49 → PHX 09:39AA 2006 1h 07m Phoenix PHX 10:46 → ONT 12:12AA 2661 7h 23m 92% 75%
AmericanDetails → DCA 06:59 → DFW 09:25AA 1839 2h 55m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:20 → ONT 13:34AA 2635 9h 35m 99% 74%
DeltaDetails → DCA 12:27 → ATL 14:17DL 380 2h 48m Atlanta ATL 17:05 → ONT 18:30DL 2891 9h 03m 98% 74%
AmericanDetails → DCA 05:00 → DFW 07:22AA 2007 3h 18m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:40 → ONT 11:56AA 2956 9h 56m 100% 73%
DeltaDetails → DCA 17:45 → SLC 20:41DL 820 54m Salt Lake City SLC 21:35 → ONT 22:23DL 1614 7h 38m 82% 70%
UnitedDetails → DCA 17:10 → ORD 18:19UA 654 1h 59m Chicago ORD 20:18 → ONT 22:51UA 658 8h 41m 92% 63%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON