Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 18 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: YX 4541 at 00:03 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–27%.

Safest bet that day YX 4541 DCA 00:03 → ORD 01:09 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 654 DCA 17:10 → ORD 18:19 · 27% chance 15+ min late · usually 50% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


YX 4541 Republic	DCA 00:03	ORD 01:09	6%	3%	1.1%	no record
UA 1793 United Flight history →	DCA 06:30	ORD 07:46	6%	2%	0.9%	92%
UA 2774 United Flight history →	DCA 09:30	ORD 10:50	11%	4%	1.2%	94%
AA 523 American Flight history →	DCA 06:32	ORD 07:39	12%	4%	1.4%	78%
AA 522 American	DCA 08:43	ORD 10:01	14%	5%	1.0%	no record
AA 2633 American Flight history →	DCA 07:45	ORD 09:00	16%	4%	1.0%	87%
AA 488 American	DCA 20:27	ORD 21:51	18%	7%	1.2%	no record
AA 808 American Flight history →	DCA 11:33	ORD 12:44	18%	5%	1.0%	90%
AA 2023 American Flight history →	DCA 10:20	ORD 11:31	18%	6%	1.1%	81%
UA 351 United Flight history →	DCA 10:19	ORD 11:22	18%	5%	0.9%	88%
UA 511 United Flight history →	DCA 13:10	ORD 14:19	20%	6%	0.8%	76%
AA 1637 American Flight history →	DCA 16:02	ORD 17:22	20%	8%	1.2%	74%
AA 2284 American	DCA 13:45	ORD 14:56	21%	7%	1.0%	no record
AA 3148 American	DCA 18:27	ORD 19:50	21%	7%	1.2%	no record
AA 1221 American	DCA 14:57	ORD 16:09	21%	8%	1.1%	no record
UA 2148 United Flight history →	DCA 17:59	ORD 19:08	23%	7%	1.0%	51%
AA 1189 American Flight history →	DCA 17:03	ORD 18:24	25%	7%	1.2%	61%
UA 654 United Flight history →	DCA 17:10	ORD 18:19	27%	7%	0.9%	50%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON