Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 10–15% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 5601 DCA 15:04 → ORF 16:23 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 56% on time Riskiest AA 5662 DCA 20:15 → ORF 21:20 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 59% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 5601 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 15:04	ORF 16:23	10%	6%	1.6%	56%
AA 5509 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 09:56	ORF 11:16	10%	4%	1.7%	75%
AA 5662 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 20:15	ORF 21:20	15%	7%	1.9%	59%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON