Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 07:45, is the safest bet: 90% chance of reaching Portland on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 74% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AS 9 Alaska Flight history →	DCA 17:16	PDX 20:04	14%	5%	0.8%	73%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Portland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Portland is 3 h behind Washington). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DCA 06:00 → MSP 07:35DL 1193	2h 50m Minneapolis	MSP 10:25 → PDX 12:21DL 2415	9h 21m	99%	92%
Delta Details →	DCA 07:45 → MSP 09:25DL 1493	1h 26m Minneapolis	MSP 10:51 → PDX 12:40DL 1661	7h 55m	97%	90%
Delta Details →	DCA 12:00 → MSP 13:41DL 2958	2h 17m Minneapolis	MSP 15:58 → PDX 17:35DL 2008	8h 35m	98%	89%
Delta Details →	DCA 06:02 → JFK 07:25DL 5802 · flown by Republic	1h 05m New York	JFK 08:30 → PDX 11:36DL 1574	8h 34m	97%	87%
Delta Details →	DCA 06:00 → ATL 07:43DL 410	3h 17m Atlanta	ATL 11:00 → PDX 12:58DL 2206	9h 58m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	DCA 05:54 → DTW 07:26DL 2869	1h 28m Detroit	DTW 08:54 → PDX 10:36DL 2171	7h 42m	97%	87%
Delta Details →	DCA 15:07 → MSP 16:56DL 2983	1h 38m Minneapolis	MSP 18:34 → PDX 20:15DL 2151	8h 08m	96%	85%
Delta Details →	DCA 12:27 → ATL 14:17DL 380	2h 28m Atlanta	ATL 16:45 → PDX 18:49DL 503	9h 22m	97%	83%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	DCA 17:59 → ORD 19:08UA 2148	55m Chicago	ORD 20:03 → PDX 22:30UA 2243	7h 31m	74%	53%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON