tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 15–17% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AA 5248 American flown by PSA Flight history → DCA 17:39 PHL 18:55 15% 7% 1.2% 66%
OH 5304 PSA DCA 13:38 PHL 14:51 17% 6% 1.0% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Philadelphia on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → DCA 07:45 → MSP 09:25DL 1493 1h 44m Minneapolis MSP 11:09 → PHL 14:43DL 2679 6h 58m 98% 90%
DeltaDetails → DCA 05:54 → DTW 07:26DL 2869 2h 39m Detroit DTW 10:05 → PHL 11:41DL 2331 5h 47m 99% 89%
DeltaDetails → DCA 09:27 → BOS 11:24DL 5687 · flown by Republic 3h 06m Boston BOS 14:30 → PHL 16:12DL 5706 · flown by Republic 6h 45m 99% 88%
AmericanDetails → DCA 07:25 → BOS 08:50AA 3240 2h 23m Boston BOS 11:13 → PHL 12:39AA 4643 · flown by Republic 5h 14m 98% 87%
AmericanDetails → DCA 12:03 → IND 14:05AA 4520 · flown by Republic 2h 49m Indianapolis IND 16:54 → PHL 19:03AA 5592 · flown by PSA 7h 00m 99% 86%
DeltaDetails → DCA 06:00 → ATL 07:43DL 410 2h 27m Atlanta ATL 10:10 → PHL 12:15DL 2279 6h 15m 99% 86%
DeltaDetails → DCA 17:29 → DTW 19:15DL 1454 2h 20m Detroit DTW 21:35 → PHL 23:16DL 2402 5h 47m 97% 85%
AmericanDetails → DCA 06:12 → CLT 07:48AA 1521 1h 42m Charlotte CLT 09:30 → PHL 11:21AA 2565 5h 09m 98% 85%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON