Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: OH 5212 at 08:04 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 11–21%.

Safest bet that day OH 5212 DCA 08:04 → PWM 10:07 · 10% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 2978 DCA 20:03 → PWM 21:55 · 21% chance 15+ min late · usually 60% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


OH 5212 PSA	DCA 08:04	PWM 10:07	10%	3%	1.0%	no record
AA 5528 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 11:04	PWM 13:07	11%	4%	1.1%	81%
AA 1423 American Flight history →	DCA 14:43	PWM 16:34	16%	5%	0.8%	87%
AA 2978 American Flight history →	DCA 20:03	PWM 21:55	21%	7%	0.8%	60%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON