Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: MQ 4053 at 13:50 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–24%.

Safest bet that day MQ 4053 DCA 13:50 → RDU 15:09 · 13% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 2083 DCA 19:48 → RDU 21:10 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 57% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


MQ 4053 Envoy	DCA 13:50	RDU 15:09	13%	5%	1.1%	no record
MQ 4232 Envoy	DCA 08:50	RDU 10:07	14%	4%	1.0%	no record
MQ 4229 Envoy	DCA 16:51	RDU 18:07	18%	6%	1.4%	no record
AA 2083 American Flight history →	DCA 19:48	RDU 21:10	24%	10%	1.0%	57%
DL 5269 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	DCA 07:59	RDU 09:09	14%	6%	1.4%	86%
DL 5322 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	DCA 17:47	RDU 19:21	37%	14%	2.5%	63%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON