Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 11–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day OH 5027 DCA 09:50 → ROC 11:28 · 11% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 5457 DCA 14:58 → ROC 16:36 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 75% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


OH 5027 PSA	DCA 09:50	ROC 11:28	11%	3%	1.1%	no record
AA 5344 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 20:25	ROC 22:06	13%	6%	2.4%	63%
AA 5457 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 14:58	ROC 16:36	13%	4%	1.2%	75%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON