Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: American via Charlotte, leaving 06:12, is the safest bet: 70% chance of reaching Fort Myers on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 70% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AA 2916 American Flight history →	DCA 08:23	RSW 11:22	17%	4%	8.0%	70%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Fort Myers on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DCA 06:00 → MSP 07:35DL 1193	1h 30m Minneapolis	MSP 09:05 → RSW 13:27DL 2400	7h 27m	98%	84%
Delta Details →	DCA 09:39 → DTW 11:09DL 1558	3h 19m Detroit	DTW 14:28 → RSW 17:22DL 1225	7h 43m	99%	82%
United Details →	DCA 06:30 → ORD 07:46UA 1793	1h 34m Chicago	ORD 09:20 → RSW 13:15UA 1036	6h 45m	98%	81%
United Details →	DCA 06:00 → IAH 08:13UA 1450	1h 18m Houston	IAH 09:31 → RSW 13:08UA 494	7h 08m	98%	81%
Delta Details →	DCA 05:54 → DTW 07:26DL 2869	1h 12m Detroit	DTW 08:38 → RSW 11:33DL 2001	5h 39m	97%	78%
Delta Details →	DCA 10:16 → ATL 12:05DL 926	2h 54m Atlanta	ATL 14:59 → RSW 16:44DL 1379	6h 28m	99%	78%
Delta Details →	DCA 08:00 → ATL 09:51DL 343	1h 58m Atlanta	ATL 11:49 → RSW 13:36DL 1153	5h 36m	94%	78%
Delta Details →	DCA 12:27 → ATL 14:17DL 380	2h 50m Atlanta	ATL 17:07 → RSW 18:55DL 1124	6h 28m	98%	76%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	DCA 13:00 → EWR 14:22UA 4442 · flown by GoJet	1h 10m Newark	EWR 15:32 → RSW 18:40UA 1832	5h 40m	70%	51%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON