Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, AA 1947 at 16:59, with a 19% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AA 1947 American Flight history →	DCA 16:59	SAT 19:40	19%	8%	0.7%	57%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Antonio on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Antonio is 1 h behind Washington). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DCA 06:00 → MSP 07:35DL 1193	1h 18m Minneapolis	MSP 08:53 → SAT 11:46DL 2667	6h 46m	97%	88%
Southwest Details →	DCA 08:17 → STL 09:50WN 1519	3h 57m St Louis	STL 13:47 → SAT 16:10WN 4350	8h 53m	99%	88%
United Details →	DCA 06:00 → IAH 08:13UA 1450	1h 26m Houston	IAH 09:39 → SAT 10:46UA 6201 · flown by Mesa	5h 46m	98%	86%
Delta Details →	DCA 06:02 → JFK 07:25DL 5802 · flown by Republic	1h 05m New York	JFK 08:30 → SAT 11:42DL 1166	6h 40m	97%	84%
Delta Details →	DCA 08:00 → ATL 09:51DL 343	2h 24m Atlanta	ATL 12:15 → SAT 13:38DL 1408	6h 38m	95%	81%
American Details →	DCA 07:49 → PHX 09:39AA 2006	2h 44m Phoenix	PHX 12:23 → SAT 16:47AA 570	9h 58m	98%	81%
United Details →	DCA 06:30 → ORD 07:46UA 1793	1h 39m Chicago	ORD 09:25 → SAT 12:29UA 490	6h 59m	98%	81%
Delta Details →	DCA 15:07 → MSP 16:56DL 2983	1h 39m Minneapolis	MSP 18:35 → SAT 21:26DL 2773	7h 19m	96%	81%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	DCA 17:59 → ORD 19:08UA 2148	50m Chicago	ORD 19:58 → SAT 22:57UA 1394	5h 58m	71%	48%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON