Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 19–21% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 786 DCA 16:35 → SEA 19:41 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 66% on time Riskiest AS 3 DCA 17:00 → SEA 19:59 · 21% chance 15+ min late · usually 75% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 786 Delta Flight history →	DCA 16:35	SEA 19:41	19%	7%	0.9%	66%
AS 1 Alaska Flight history →	DCA 08:00	SEA 10:58	20%	5%	0.8%	82%
AS 3 Alaska Flight history →	DCA 17:00	SEA 19:59	21%	8%	0.8%	75%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	DCA 07:45 → MSP 09:25DL 1493	1h 45m Minneapolis	MSP 11:10 → SEA 13:00DL 889	8h 15m	98%	88%
Delta Details →	DCA 06:00 → MSP 07:35DL 1193	1h 30m Minneapolis	MSP 09:05 → SEA 10:59DL 868	7h 59m	98%	87%
Alaska Details →	DCA 17:16 → PDX 20:04AS 9	1h 26m Portland	PDX 21:30 → SEA 22:27AS 2421 · flown by Horizon	8h 11m	93%	84%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON